Victor of the Chart: Expanded Factor Analysis of the Antiochus/Porphyry Model
Do the bounds take all? The first ever application of Bayesian statistical methods to a traditional natal astrology model
Published September 21, 2011; updates October 18, 2016 and April 15, 2025.
Read time: 45 minutes
This paper presents the most extensive statistical evaluation to date of the Antiochus/Porphyry (AP) model for identifying the Victor of the Chart—the planetary ruler designed to represent the native’s soul-level purpose, life direction, or daimon. Drawing on Porphyry’s reinterpretation of Platonic and Hellenistic philosophy, the Victor is selected from among the five traditional planets (Mercury through Saturn) and aims to describe the core orientation of the individual’s incarnation, especially as it manifests through vocation and legacy.
The study uses two samples of 434 horoscopes, the first rectified by the author, the second sourced from Astrodatabank. Two stages of the AP model are tested. Stage 1 identifies Victor candidates based on planetary rulerships and placements relative to key points: the Ascendant, Midheaven, Moon, Sun, Lot of Fortune, Lot of Spirit, and the prenatal syzygy. Stage 2 ranks these candidates using additional criteria, including sect, solar phase, house placement, essential dignity, receptions, and planetary configurations. The author extends Porphyry’s model with careful attention to both ancient doctrine and modern statistical rigor, employing Bayesian analysis to evaluate signal strength.
Findings confirm that bound lords (rather than sign rulers) are the most powerful and consistent predictors of the Victor, especially in Stage 1. These bound rulers corresponded well with the “empirical victor”—the planet most consistently activated during major life events via Firdaria, Zodiacal Releasing, and primary directions. While Stage 2 criteria were less consistent across the dataset, they proved valuable in resolving ambiguous cases.
The paper acknowledges subjectivity in identifying empirical victors, but argues that differences of opinion can often be resolved by distinguishing between four related models: the Victor model (soul’s purpose), the cognitive assessment model (Moon-Mercury personality), the temperament model, and the physiognomy model. These models may share planetary significators, but they describe different facets of the individual. The Victor model remains unique in its focus on the soul’s pre-incarnational choice and ethical vocation.
With over 2,500 data tables and a robust methodology, this paper is a landmark in the statistical study of traditional astrology. It not only revives Porphyry’s model with contemporary rigor but also proposes the eventual construction of a closed-form victor model—one that may help restore the astrology of the soul to a central role in natal interpretation.